News - Survivor pool strategy: Broncos, Bills among top options in Week 10

Congratulations on making it more than halfway through the Eliminator season. Only 6.4% of remaining entries are still alive through Week 9. Last week featured the two biggest upsets of the season with the Carolina Panthers and Minnesota Vikings upsetting the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions respectively. With the season over halfway done, strategy becomes more important. Start to map out the second half of the season and make sure you leave yourself options each week as nine teams are already gone. Several of the top picks in Week 10 are widely unavailable for most users. The Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, Lions and Seattle Seahawks are great choices, but this column has already used them all. Denver would be the top pick if available. Since this column has used those teams, it's a difficult choice between the Panthers and Buffalo Bills. The Bills are the safer choice but have several appealing matchups down the road. The Panthers are riskier but have no future value. Due to the Panthers' projected high selection rate, the official column pick will be the Bills. The Panthers are a below average team in a division game, so if they will be popular, I would lean towards pivoting elsewhere and hoping for the upset. Mike Clay's Eliminator Challenge cheat sheet 1. Denver Broncos (vs. Las Vegas Raiders) The Broncos are the biggest favorites of the week according to both Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics' models. It's also their easiest remaining game of the season. While "Thursday Night Football" has featured a few upsets this season, historically big favorites win at a higher rate on Thursday than Sunday or Monday. They are the top choice if you still have them available. ESPN Analytics chance to win: 73%Mike Clay chance to win: 89%ESPN BET line: Broncos -9.5 (-550 money line)Eliminator Challenge: 17% selected 2. Indianapolis Colts (vs. Atlanta Falcons) This is the Colts' highest win probability in any remaining game according to ESPN Analytics. It's also their second-most lopsided matchup of the week. The Colts have only one more relatively soft matchup (Week 17 vs. the Jaguars), so their future value is limited but more than Denver's. Coming off a game with six turnovers against the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Colts are due for some positive regression against a Falcons team that is below average on both sides of the ball. ESPN Analytics chance to win: 70%Mike Clay chance to win: 80%ESPN BET line: Colts -6.5 (-260 money line)Eliminator Challenge: 2% selected 3. Detroit Lions (at Washington Commanders) The Jayden Daniels injury opens up an opportunity. The Lions have several remaining games with similar win probability (Weeks 12, 14 and 16), but Mike Clay has this as the Lions' easiest game of that group. The Lions are coming off a bad loss, but they have won and covered 12 straight after a loss. With the Lions being lightly selected this week, they are a very strong choice if still available. ESPN Analytics chance to win: 65%Mike Clay chance to win: 75%ESPN BET line: Lions -8.5 (-550 money line)Eliminator Challenge: 2% selected 4. Buffalo Bills (at Miami Dolphins) Josh Allen is 12-1 in his career against the Dolphins including the playoffs. Like the other teams on this list, the Bills are unavailable for many entrants, which will keep their selection rate low. They have three more weeks where they will be big favorites (Weeks 14, 16 and 18), but they are the biggest betting favorites this week and the second-biggest according to Mike Clay. If you still have the Kansas City Chiefs, the Bills are an even better option, as the Bills and Chiefs look like the clear top two choices in Week 16 right now. ESPN Analytics chance to win: 69%Mike Clay chance to win: 84%ESPN BET line: Bills -9.5 (-650 money line)Eliminator Challenge: 6% selected 5. Carolina Panthers (vs. New Orleans Saints) The Panthers make a ton of sense as one of the bigger favorites this week with virtually no future value. However, they are still the seventh-worst team according to ESPN Analytics, and they project to be popular. This is the first time the Panthers have been favored all season, and in each of the past nine times they've been favored, they've lost. If they win, it will put you in better shape down the road, and they are the fourth-biggest favorites according to both ESPN Analytics and Mike Clay. But if I have one of the top-4 teams above them, I would try to gain leverage on the field and fade a chalky Panthers squad. ESPN Analytics chance to win: 66%Mike Clay chance to win: 75%ESPN BET line: Panthers -5.5 (-240 money line)Eliminator Challenge: 15% selected Official picks Denver Broncos (Week 1)Arizona Cardinals (Week 2)Seattle Seahawks (Week 3)Houston Texans (Week 4)Detroit Lions (Week 5)Green Bay Packers (Week 6) Kansas City Chiefs (Week 7)Indianapolis Colts (Week 8) Los Angeles Rams (Week 9)Buffalo Bills (Week 10) Projected path Week 11: New England Patriots (vs. Jets) Week 12: Baltimore Ravens (vs. Jets)Week 13: Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Raiders)Week 14: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Saints)Week 15: San Francisco 49ers (vs. Titans)Week 16: Philadelphia Eagles (at Commanders)Week 17: Pittsburgh Steelers (at Browns)Week 18: Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Titans)